The Great Indian Show: Poll Dance

Will Left support UPA?

New Delhi: Despite an outright rejection of its overtures, the Congress is confident that the estranged Left will be left with no choice but to support the UPA over a "communal force" like the BJP and feels that differences over foreign policy and the India-US nuclear deal can be "managed".

But the Communists, who are trying hard to install a non-Congress, non-BJP Third Front government, have made it clear that they are not ready to enter the door left open for them.

"If they have an enlightened view of their interests and national interests, they will wake up to post-poll reality and know whom to support. Given a choice between a communal force like the BJP (Bharatiya Janata Party) and secular pluralist Congress, they will back us," says veteran Congress leader Mani Shankar Aiyar from Mayiladuturai, his constituency in Tamil Nadu where he is campaigning.

But Aiyar makes it clear there won't be any compromise with either the India-US nuclear deal or the defence framework agreement with Washington, which have already been sealed.

"None of their apprehensions about the course of foreign policy have turned out to be true," Aiyar said when asked about the Left's contention that India was moving into the US strategic orbit.

Agreed Prithviraj Chavan, minister of state in the Prime Minister's Office: "One thing is clear. They will never support the BJP-led NDA. There is a much bigger threat from communal forces and the Left realises it."

Chavan also sought to gloss over ideological differences with the Left on the nuclear deal, the showpiece of the UPA's foreign policy and the pivot of India's transformed relationship with the US.

"They don't have issues with the nuclear deal. They are against a larger relationship with the US. But these differences can be managed."

"We had a very good relationship with the Left parties. All these permutations and combinations will start only after May 16," Chavan replied when asked what package deal the Congress was ready to offer the Left to win their support in case of the Congress emerging as the single largest party.

In a clear sign that that the ruling Congress-led UPA is not sure of getting the numbers to form the next government, the Congress has launched a concerted media offensive to win over the Left parties, which tried to topple their government over the nuclear deal last year.

Senior leaders like Prime Minister Manmohan Singh and External Affairs Minister Pranab Mukherjee have repeatedly said in media interviews that the Congress was hopeful of support from the Left parties in forming the next government.

Congress general secretary Rahul Gandhi was the latest to woo the Left. He critiqued the Left's views on the nuclear deal as "20-30 years old" and admitted that there are ideological differences between the Congress and the Left. But he was confident about winning over the Left.

"We will do better than last time. And I am confident that the Left will support Manmohan Singh," he said at his Tuesday press conference in the capital.

The Left leaders see such confidence as "misplaced" and a "sign of arrogance".

Communist Party of India-Marxist (CPI-M) leader Prakash Karat disdainfully dismissed Rahul Gandhi's remarks and made it clear that the Left would "try to form a non-Congress government".

"It will not work. I don't foresee any possibility," says Communist Party of India (CPI) leader D. Raja when asked whether the Left would support the UPA.

CPI leader A.B. Bardhan was emphatic about repudiating any possibility of supporting the UPA. "Under no conditions we will support the UPA as long as the Congress does not change its policies. And we don't see that happening."

"We broke with the Congress on issues of policy and not for some whimsy. The Congress should not imagine we will enter the door just because it's been left open. It looks like we have been taken for granted."

"Now they are going soft. They are not sure of their numbers. They don't think they will come to power without a prop," sneered Bardhan.

Political analysts are also sceptical of any rapprochement between the Congress and the Left. "It's too large a chasm to bridge. The two broke up on a very important initiative like the nuclear deal. And nothing has changed on ground on that issue," said Mahesh Rangarajan, a political analyst.

Post-elections, will India-US ties become a casualty?

NEW DELHI: With political equations in a flux and the Left parties seeking to play the role of kingmaker in the formation of the next government, the fate of the India-US nuclear deal and the trajectory of bilateral ties are being called into question.

The anxieties about the shape of India-US relations primarily spring from the uncompromising opposition of Left parties to any strategic relationship with Washington.

The Left parties, which tried to topple the United Progressive Alliance (UPA) government over the issue of the nuclear deal last year by withdrawing support, have said in their manifestos that if a government is formed with their support, they will review the deal and scrap the 2005 defence framework agreement.

"The Left will not scrap the deal as it is an international agreement but will put it in cold storage," says Communist Party of India leader A.B. Bardhan.

"We are opposed to a strategic relationship with the US because it will compromise India's autonomy in strategic decision-making," Bardhan explains

Statements like these have created an impression that a Left-supported government will be bad news for blossoming India-US relations that touched a new high during the term of present Prime Minister Manmohan Singh.

"There will obviously be a slowdown. They will extract their pound of flesh," says Brajesh Mishra, the powerful national security adviser in the previous National Democratic Alliance (NDA) government of prime minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee, when asked whether India-US ties will suffer in case a Left-supported government comes to power.

"I don't see any other party in the Third Front which has ideological problems with continuing the strategic relationship with the US," he says.

Regional parties like the AIADMK, Nationalist Congress Party (NCP), Biju Janata Dal (BJD) and the Telugu Desam Party (TDP) don't have problems with carrying forward India-US ties but closer ties with the world's most powerful country do not figure anywhere in their campaign agenda. Neither is the nuclear deal on the agenda of Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) chief Mayawati who is on record as saying that India should oppose American sanctions on "our old friend Iran".

However, India's chief opposition Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) has softened its stand on the nuclear deal after opposing it during a trust vote moved by the Congress-led UPA government last year.

BJP's prime ministerial candidate L.K. Advani recently said that if voted to power, his government would examine all aspects of the India-US nuclear deal signed last year but would not scrap it.

"A treaty signed by the earlier government cannot be easily disregarded," says Advani while adding that the BJP will take a closer look at the issue "only (when) in the government".

Advani is also upbeat on India-US ties that had advanced considerably during the BJP-led NDA regine. "The two major democracies should have a cordial relationship," says he.

"Indo-US relations are very important for both the BJP and the Congress. They are bound to get stronger if the coalitions led by either of these parties come to power," says Mishra.

"There is an across-the-board political consensus in India for taking India-US relations forward. I don't see anyone else, except the Left parties, who has any ideological opposition to strategic partnership with the US," says Mishra.

"Depending on how critical the support of the Left is for the next coalition by way of numbers, there may be a go-slow on the India-US defence cooperation agreement due to the 'left brake'" says C. Uday Bhaskar, well known strategic commentator.

"This would be to our strategic detriment in the long run and only India's traditional adversaries will benefit from such ideological constraints that stunt India's overall military profile."

Mishra questions the ability of the Left parties to impose their viewpoint on other partners in a Third Front formation. "It will depend on how much they (Left parties) are able to enforce their ideological viewpoints and the attitude of their partners towards it," says Mishra.

"There are economic and strategic compulsions driving India-US relations. "That process can't be reversed," says Mishra.

In this election, choose long-term vision over short-term gains

By Sam Pitroda

As the world's biggest exercise in democracy gets underway, there is a sense of expectation and anticipation. With an electorate of 714 million people eligible to vote, there is a tremendous opportunity for the people of India to elect a government that will deliver results and improve the growth trajectory of the country.

In the present election environment of personal attacks and popular slogans, it is important to look at the long term implications and a concrete developmental agenda.

India's parliamentary elections are taking place at a time when the world is at a crossroads and the country has emerged as a highly significant global voice. While at one level the elections are necessarily about domestic challenges such as economic development and security, at another level they are also about the role India can play in shaping the world as the largest pluralistic democracy.

It is from the perspective of the role India ought to play on the global stage, especially in light of the global financial meltdown and associated opportunities for India and the world, that it is important that a clear verdict emerge.

The presence of a large number of regional parties in our polity affirms the vibrant nature of democracy in India. However, after laying the foundation for a great economy since 1991, India cannot afford to squander away all its gains and strengths because of a fractured mandate. The country needs a clearly defined economic, social, political, educational, cultural and scientific agenda and the ability to execute it.

Like all elections, this one too is about the future. It is about the future of 550 million people below the age of 25. Equally, it is about hundreds of millions of Indians who still languish on the margins of society and are denied basic opportunities. We owe it to them to produce a government that is not constrained by competing regional ambitions, but instead governed by a nationally collective vision for the 21st century.

One aspect of this collective vision should arise from the recognition that India can be the most effective counter against the rising tide of violent fundamentalism in the subcontinent which has a direct bearing on the stability of the world.

India can use its position as a responsible and stable democracy to galvanise international efforts towards regional stability. However, unless New Delhi has a government that is free from the compulsions of balancing coalition demands and short-term rent seeking, it cannot concentrate on effectively combating the destabilising forces in Pakistan and Afghanistan. This inability can have serious consequences for India's own future and security.

The core of this collective vision should focus on creating inclusive growth strategies that seek to lift hundreds of millions of people at subsistence level to a better quality of life. Unless we have a government that is not looking over its shoulder about who might be out to dislodge it, it is not possible to put in place long-term plans and rational policy for overall progress and prosperity.

We must not create a situation where the country's prime minister has to continuously balance his priorities between pleasing coalition partners and the development agenda for the country.

A country in the midst of a generational transformation is bound to have many challenges, priorities and opportunities. These relate to security, economy, health, education, energy, infrastructure, agriculture, employment and more. From the perspective of the young, the twin concerns of education and employment are especially important.

Many of us are personally passionate about turning India's vast knowledge base into an asset which can help transform the country. It is not widely understood that our growing young population offers a unique demographic dividend which has the potential to transform the future course of development. To effectively harness this potential we need to invest in school, vocational and higher education with a clear focus on expansion, excellence and access.

We have to make sure that the poorest of the poor have the opportunity to get the best possible education in the country, irrespective of their background. To deliver on this unique opportunity, political will, with a strong government at the centre, is a decisive factor. This political will is possible only when we have a stable dispensation undistracted by extraneous challenges.

Unlike other political formations, today we need a nationally cohesive presence with a broad vision about how it wants the country to progress. The last five years of the Congress Party-led United Progressive Alliance government under Manmohan Singh have been generally effective in furthering many of the party's ideas for nation building and initiating an inclusive growth agenda. This is notwithstanding the pressures of a coalition government.

The choice we make becomes even more relevant in the wake of the global economic downturn. India has fared better than most other countries in coping with the global crisis. It is still the second-fastest growing economy in the world and its banking sector has largely escaped the crisis that has plagued big banks in many other emerging markets.

Yet, India is not de-hyphenated from global financial problems and is facing challenges of credit flow, unemployment, loss of exports and investments. Still, the global economic slowdown provides an interesting opportunity for India. In relative terms, it can be used to bolster growth, initiate more development and job creation.

At this stage we need to take advantage of the huge internal markets with a focus on the bottom of the pyramid. We also need people in the government that do not seek to divide India in narrowly defined sections based on identities and parochial concerns.

We need to continue to implement our unfinished reform agenda with a clear commitment to right to information, right to education, national rural employment guarantee programmes, rural health mission, education, roads, energy, foreign investment rules, labour laws, privatisation of certain public sector initiatives, administrative reforms, judicial reforms, good governance, broadband connectivity etc.

Only through such a focussed implementation agenda, backed by the right political will and strong and stable government at the centre, can we hope to build a prosperous India of the future where there will be no distinction between 'Bharat' and 'India'.

Comments